BYD 2025 Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (to April 2025)
Stock Reference: BYD (HKEX:1211) as the benchmark, given the persistent A/H premium, making HKEX the leading indicator due to foreign institutional buying.
Current Price: HKD 360, Market Cap HKD 1.05 trillion.
With monthly sales expected to exceed 400,000 units, BYD’s autonomous driving capabilities (全民智驾) will likely enhance market share. The viral nature of consumer adoption will create a network effect, driving further penetration as smart driving features become a key purchasing factor.
Q1 sales exceeding expectations (1 million units vs. 620,000 YoY) will likely push institutional investors to revise annual forecasts upward, with the consensus shifting from 5 million to 5.5 million vehicles (some institutions still estimate 5 million).
On profitability:
Higher export sales (20% of Q1 volume, assuming 70,000 units in March and 200,000 for Q1) will increase per-unit margins.
However, smart driving feature upgrades without price increases will effectively lower ASP by HKD 3,000 per unit, making net per-unit margin growth marginal but positive.
Product Launches:
Han L, Tang L, Denza N9 pre-orders exceed expectations, boosting BYD’s premium positioning.
Upcoming 1,000V platform and fast-charging energy storage will enhance pure EV adoption forecasts.
Second-generation Blade Battery (release date unknown but expected around Han L launch) may further drive efficiency and range advantages.
Key Catalyst:
March 27 Earnings Report – Focus on per-unit profitability and management outlook.
Q1 earnings announcement (late April, unless pre-announced) will be a major stock price driver.
Market Sentiment & Price Target by April 2025:
Valuation Model:
5.5Munits×HKD10,000netprofitperunit×25xPE=HKD1.4trillion5.5Munits×HKD10,000netprofitperunit×25xPE=HKD1.4trillion
Applying a 15% discount, fair value at HKD 1.2 trillion, implying a HKD 420 share price (+20% upside from HKD 360).
Market Reaction: If sentiment remains strong, higher earnings could justify a richer premium, leading to a potential multiple expansion beyond 25x PE.
Mid-Term Outlook (April to Mid-2025)
Expected Consolidation Phase:
With most new models already launched, demand expectations largely priced in, and uncertainty around whether full-year sales could reach 6 million, BYD’s stock may trade in a range.Key Drivers to Watch:
20%+ sales mix from high-end models (Han, Tang, N9) – Direct impact on per-unit margins and brand premiumization.
NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) updates – BYD must enter the first-tier autonomous driving league with strong data-driven enhancements.
Overseas expansion – New factory announcements (expected in Middle East, South America, and Europe) as capital investments materialize.
Expected Trading Range: HKD 420–480 (~30% upside from current levels).
Long-Term Outlook (Golden September & Silver October to End 2025)
Upward Revision to Annual Sales Forecast (Possibly 6M Units)
If Q3 demand exceeds expectations, institutional forecasts may adjust to 6 million units for FY25.Key Metrics for Revaluation:
Per-unit profit of 11,000RMB (vs. initial forecast of 10,000RMB).
FY25 net profit upgraded to HKD 65 billion (vs. HKD 55 billion early-year forecast).
Assuming valuation remains at 25x PE, the market cap could rise to HKD 1.6 trillion → HKD 560 per share (+55% from HKD 360).
Potential Upside Beyond 30x PE:
BYD remains a high-growth EV leader, benefiting from rising global EV penetration & overseas expansion.
Emerging growth drivers: Humanoid robots, energy storage, and full autonomous driving.
Global expansion risk: High-reward but risky; execution in overseas factories (distribution efficiency & local market fit) remains a wildcard.
David Z.
