TMDX 2024 Q4

The management addressed three key questions during the earnings call.

First, regarding the short-selling report, the management explicitly stated that the claims in the report were untrue. They clarified that OCS’s major hospital clients had not canceled orders; instead, they continued using OCS in Q4 and Q1. This directly countered market concerns about order losses.

Second, the seasonality issue in Q3 was acknowledged as real, mainly due to the impact of doctors taking summer and Christmas holidays. This pattern is an industry norm and cannot be changed. However, as the market share of lung, liver, and heart transplants increases, the company remains confident in achieving 20%-25% growth in 2025.

Finally, regarding whether NRP would hinder market share growth, management made it clear that NRP mainly affects the DCD segment of the liver transplant market but does not impact overall transplant market growth, especially for lungs and hearts, which still have significant potential. Moreover, OCS remains essential for transportation even after NRP, making it a critical component. With technological advancements in lung and heart transplants, Q2 2025 could become the second-largest driver of heart market share growth, with results potentially becoming evident in early 2025-2026.

Overall, management remains optimistic. The seasonal impact is manageable, and NRP’s effect is limited. While future growth potential remains substantial, the projected revenue of $553-$555 million in 2025, with a 20%-25% growth rate, is slightly disappointing.

2025.3.1